By Dr. Geoffrey Modest
The CDC just released the life expectancy statistics for the US from 2015, finding a decrease of 0.1 years from the 2014 numbers (see http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db267.htm ).
Details:
- In 2015, there were 2,712,630 deaths, an increase in 86,212
- In 2015, life expectancy was 78.8 years, with 0.1 year decrease from 2014
- For males, the decrease was 0.2 years from 76.5 to 76.3 in 2015
- For females, the decrease was 0.1 years from 81.3 to 81.2 in 2015
- For both, the change was only in life expectancy from birth, with no change in the group who made it to 65 yo [life expectancy for males aged 65 was 18.0 years, females 20.6 years: no change from 2014 to 2015. But no indication in their data as to why. ??from more opiate deaths??]
- The age-adjusted death rate increased 1.2% from 724.6 deaths/100,000 to 733.1 in 2015
- This increase was highest for non-Hispanic white females (1.6%), then non-Hispanic white males (1%), then non-Hispanic black males (0.9%)
- No change in 10 leading causes of death, but death rate increased for 8 of them and decreased for 1. (the 10 leading causes of death account for 74.2% of all deaths)
- Increased for heart disease with age-adjusted death rate increase from 167 to 168.5, chronic lower respiratory disease (40.5 to 41.6), unintentional injuries (40.5 to 43.2), stroke (36.5 to 37.6), Alzheimer’s (25.4 to 29.4), diabetes (20.9 to 21.3), kidney disease (13.2 to 13.4), and suicide (13.0 to 13.2), but decreased for cancer (161.2 to 158.5)),
- Infant mortality rate was no different, at 589.5/100K live births (was 582.1 in 2014, reflecting 240 more infant deaths, but the only significant change was an 11.3% increase in unintentional injuries
- 10 leading causes of infant death were the same, though 2 changed rankings (maternal complications moved from #3 to #4 and SIDS from #4 to #3) in 2015
So, though life expectancy in the US has increased pretty dramatically since around 1970, and has had a largely linear increase in the past couple of decades, this new data is concerning (and more concerning if the trend continues). And there may be several impending changes in US policies in the next several years which could exacerbate this trend, potentially with more uninsured people without access to health care, a decrease in the social safety net which provides some basic needs to poor and disabled, changes in abortion laws (which in the past has led to maternal mortality associated with getting illegal back-alley abortions), perhaps increasing trends in interpersonal violence (which we are starting to see now), even perhaps too-early/more accelerated FDA approval of new meds and medical devices with potentially more adverse outcomes, increased pollution and health effects from possibly gutting the EPA and empowering fossil fuel producers/accelerating climate change, increased worker deaths from relaxed regulations, the adverse social and health effects of increasing income inequality, etc etc etc etc…… [not a pretty picture]
See https://stg-blogs.bmj.com/bmjebmspotlight/2016/02/24/primary-care-corner-with-geoffrey-modest-md-increasing-disparities-in-life-expectancy/ and https://stg-blogs.bmj.com/bmjebmspotlight/2016/04/26/primary-care-corner-with-geoffrey-modest-md-life-expectancy-and-income/ which review studies showing that increasing longevity in the US tracks with income inequality